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Your first 90 days in futures

Lesson 24 · about 10 min

Everything in this course reduces to a schedule. The schedule is deliberately slow, because the two things that end futures accounts, size and impatience, are the two things a schedule constrains. Nothing below promises a result. It promises that at day 90 you will know, from your own log, whether you have something worth continuing.

Before day 1: the setup checklist

Item Done when
One product chosen (MES, MNQ or MCL) Written in the plan with its tick value, point value, hours and settlement time
Contract calendar Next two roll dates and, for MCL, last trading day, in your calendar
Broker rules Day-trade margin, cut-off time, liquidation policy and fee per contract written down
Data and platform Real-time subscription active; monthly fixed cost recorded
Bracket template Stop and 2R target in ticks saved; tested on the simulator
Daily loss lock Set at 3R on the platform
Risk plan from the risk course Updated with account leverage caps: intraday and overnight (overnight likely zero for now)
Economic calendar Weekly review scheduled
Log Columns for date, session, entry, stop ticks, contracts, realized R after costs, notes

Days 1 to 14: simulator, platform and hours

Goal: know the platform cold and the product's daily rhythm. Not profit.

  • Trade the simulator during RTH only, one contract, bracket every time.
  • Place every order type from Module 6, Lesson 2 at least once, including a manual exit that must cancel the bracket.
  • Sit through the 9:30 am open, a settlement window and one 8:30 am release without trading; watch what happens to the spread and the fills.
  • Log every simulated trade in realized R as if it were real. The point is the habit.

At the end of two weeks you should be able to explain your product's tick value, settlement time, roll date and your broker's cut-off from memory, and to place a bracket in under five seconds.

Days 15 to 60: one micro, real money, 40 trades

Goal: a logged sample of at least 40 real trades at a size that cannot hurt you.

Rule Setting
Size One micro contract, no exceptions, even when the budget allows more
Risk Stop from the chart; if one micro exceeds 1% of the account, skip
Session RTH only, and not the first two minutes
Overnight None; flat by the broker's cut-off
Daily limit 3R, locked on the platform
Events Flat 10 minutes before and after scheduled releases; flat on FOMC days
Roll Switch contracts on roll day; no positions across it

One micro on a $5,000 account with a 6-point MES stop is $30 of risk, or 0.6%. The dollars will feel meaningless; that is the design. Forty trades at $30 is at most $1,200 of exposure over six weeks, and a strategy that cannot survive that sample has told you something worth far more than $1,200.

Day 60: the first review

Compute from the log, using the risk course's definitions:

  • Win rate and average win and loss in realized R.
  • Expectancy per trade.
  • Longest losing streak and the maximum drawdown in R.
  • Average slippage per trade in ticks, and commission as a percentage of R.
  • Number of rule breaks: size, session, daily limit, events, roll.

Then decide by the numbers:

Result Action for days 61 to 90
Expectancy positive, zero or one rule break Continue at one micro; consider two if the 1% budget allows at the same stop
Expectancy positive, several rule breaks Continue at one micro; fix the rule breaks first; size is not the problem
Expectancy negative, few rule breaks The strategy is the problem; back to the simulator to change it, not the size
Expectancy negative, many rule breaks Stop trading live; work on the rules in the simulator for a month

The most common wrong move at this review is to add contracts because the last ten trades were good. Ten trades is noise. Forty is barely a sample. The scaling rule is account growth, not recent results.

Key idea: Ninety days buys you a platform you know, a product you understand, and a 40-plus trade log in realized R at a size that cannot hurt you. The decision at the end is made from the log, not from how it felt.

Days 61 to 90: continue, adjust, and think about capital

Trade the same plan. If the review permitted it and the account's 1% budget covers it at your stop, two micros. Continue logging.

Use this period to decide the capital question honestly. There are three routes and each has a cost:

  1. Grow the personal account. Slow, safe, and the returns on a small account in micros are small in dollars. The cost is patience.
  2. Buy a prop evaluation with the log as evidence, sized at 2% to 5% of the drawdown as Lesson 3 showed. The cost is fees and the trailing drawdown's constraints.
  3. Keep the account small and treat futures as a skill under development, which is a legitimate answer for most people at day 90.

None of them involves a full-size contract, holding overnight or the Asian session; those are decisions for a later review with a larger sample and account.

The day-90 document

At day 90 write one page:

  • Product, session, stop and target in ticks, and size rule.
  • Expectancy, win rate, longest streak and max drawdown from the log.
  • Fixed monthly costs and commission as a percentage of R.
  • Account leverage caps, intraday and overnight.
  • The specific condition under which size will next change.
  • The specific condition under which you will stop.

That page is the risk course's one-page plan, with futures numbers in it. Everything in this course was in service of being able to fill it in from evidence.

Try it: Fill in the setup checklist above today. Every row has a concrete deliverable. Then put the day-14, day-60 and day-90 review dates in your calendar and write the one sentence you will use to decide size at day 60 before you have taken a single trade.

Recap

  • Before day 1: one product, calendar dates, broker rules, data, bracket template, loss lock, updated risk plan, log.
  • Days 1 to 14: simulator for platform and hours, not for profit.
  • Days 15 to 60: one micro, RTH only, no overnight, flat for events and rolls, 40 logged trades in realized R.
  • Day 60: compute expectancy, streaks, slippage, rule breaks; decide from the table, never from the last ten trades.
  • Days 61 to 90: continue, at most two micros, and decide the capital route; write the day-90 one-page document.

See it drawn

Original diagrams for the ideas on this page. Illustrative, not real market data.

The spread of outcomes behind an expectancyA histogram of forty trades: a tall block of small losses on the left, a low spread of larger wins on the right, and a line marking the average outcome.NUMBER OF TRADES051024 LOSSES, AVG −$20016 WINS, AVG +$600EXPECTANCY +$120−$400−$200$0+$200+$400+$600+$800PROFIT OR LOSS PER TRADEexpectancy = (40% × $600) − (60% × $200) = +$120 per trade
Expectancy: the average trade. Forty trades sorted by outcome: 24 small losses and 16 larger wins. Weighting each side by how often it happens gives the average result per trade, marked here by the dashed line at +$120.
An equity curve and its drawdownAn account balance rising over a year, falling from a peak to a trough, then climbing back to the old peak.ACCOUNT EQUITY$20k$12k$8k024681012TIME (MONTHS)PEAK $16,000TROUGH $12,000DRAWDOWN−25%RECOVERY
Equity curve and drawdown. An account balance plotted month by month. The fall from the $16,000 peak to the $12,000 trough is a 25% drawdown, and the shaded area lasts until the balance climbs back to the old peak.
Slippage on a market orderA buy order clears four price levels, so the average price paid is worse than the price first quoted.Buy 1,000 shares at marketpricesell orders resting (bar length = size)20.04300 shares20.03200 shares20.01200 shares20.00300 sharesnothing resting at 20.02order sweeps up the bookaverage fill 20.02SLIPPAGE0.02 a share$20.00 in totalintended 20.00Each level fills at its own price; the average is what you really paid.
Slippage on a market order. You click at 20.00, but only 300 shares are resting there, so the rest of the order fills at 20.01, 20.03 and 20.04. The average price paid is 20.02, and that two-cent gap is slippage.

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This lesson is educational content only. It is not financial, legal or tax advice, and hypothetical examples are not indicative of future results. Trading involves risk of loss.

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