Worked sessions one and two
Lesson 23 · about 12 min
Two hypothetical sessions, worked from the plan through the trades to the result. The numbers are invented to be realistic and the product is an unnamed index future with 0.25 ticks. The point is the process: how the plan meets the order flow and what decisions follow. Nothing here is a claim about what any real session will do.
Session one: rejection of the overnight
Prep (from lesson 1). Yesterday: POC 5009.00, VAH 5010.00, VAL 5007.50, high 5012.00, low 5005.50, closed 5011.25, P-shape. Overnight: high 5013.00, POC 5011.00, currently 5011.50. IB median 9.5 points. Scenarios A (acceptance higher), B (rejection at 5013), C (gap down) as written.
The open. 5011.50, inside the overnight value, above yesterday's VAH. First fifteen minutes:
| Bar | High | Low | Close | Delta | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5012.25 | 5011.00 | 5012.00 | +610 | Buyers lift from the open |
| 2 | 5012.75 | 5011.75 | 5012.50 | +540 | Continues |
| 3 | 5013.25 | 5012.25 | 5013.00 | +820 | Reaches the level; stacked buy imbalances 5012.50 to 5013.00 |
Three bars of open-drive behaviour toward the ranked-2 level. Scenario A or B is live; C is dead. The question at 5013.00: absorption or acceptance?
Bar 4 at the level.
Price | Bid x Ask
5013.75 | 28 x 2 <- finished high
5013.50 | 240 x 160
5013.25 | 690 x 480
5013.00 | 510 x 390
5012.75 | 260 x 120
Delta: −576 Close: 5012.75
Checklist: aggression in, yes. DOM offers at 5013.25 reloaded three times (yes). 1,170 contracts at 5013.25 with two ticks of progress, delta flipped to −576 (absorption, yes). Top row 28 × 2 (finished, yes). Close back below 5013.00 (flip, yes). Five of five.
Trade 1. Short 5012.75 at the close of bar 4. Stop 5014.00 (5 ticks). Target 5009.00 POC (15 ticks). 3.0R.
| Bar | High | Low | Close | Delta | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5013.00 | 5012.00 | 5012.25 | −430 | Holding; sellers control |
| 6 | 5012.50 | 5011.25 | 5011.50 | −390 | Through overnight POC |
| 7 | 5011.75 | 5010.25 | 5010.50 | −620 | Through yesterday's VAH; one third off at 1R (5011.50) |
| 8 | 5010.75 | 5009.25 | 5009.50 | −280 | Approaching POC |
| 9 | 5009.75 | 5008.75 | 5009.25 | +140 | At POC: 1,400 contracts at 5009.00, no progress; absorption by buyers |
Bar 9: heavy buying absorbs the selling at 5009.00, exactly at the target. Exit the remaining two thirds at 5009.25. Result: one third at +1.0R, two thirds at (5012.75 − 5009.25) ÷ 1.25 = +2.8R. Blended: (1.0 + 2.8 + 2.8) ÷ 3 = +2.2R.
Rest of the session. Price rotated between 5009.00 and 5011.00 for three hours: balance. The IB was 5008.75 to 5013.25, 4.5 points, about 47% of median. A narrow IB after a rejection; the plan said trend or normal variation was possible, but no extension came with acceptance. One more level touch at 5011.00 produced two yeses out of five (no absorption, unfinished extreme); no trade. Closed 5010.00. Day: neutral. Session result: +2.2R on one trade, one pass.
Session two: acceptance, and a trade that was wrong
Prep. Yesterday (session one): POC 5010.00, VAH 5011.00, VAL 5009.00, high 5013.25, low 5008.75, closed 5010.00, bell. Overnight: high 5011.50, low 5008.00, POC 5009.50, currently 5008.25, near the overnight low. IB median 9.5.
Levels ranked: 5009.00 (VAL, rank 1), 5008.00 (overnight low, stops below, rank 2), 5005.50 (two-day low, rank 3), 5011.00 (VAH, rank 4), 5013.25 (yesterday high, rank 5).
Scenarios: A, acceptance lower (opens below 5009 and holds; short pullbacks to 5009, target 5005.50). B, failure of the overnight low (absorption below 5008, buy the swing failure, target 5010). C, open-auction inside value (no trade until IB).
The open. 5008.25. Bars 1 to 3 rotate 5007.75 to 5008.75 with deltas of −90, +120, −60. Open-auction, low conviction, sitting just above the ranked-2 level. Scenario C for now; B is possible if it probes lower.
Bar 6 probes 5008.00.
Price | Bid x Ask
5008.25 | 140 x 110
5008.00 | 390 x 260
5007.75 | 480 x 310
5007.50 | 210 x 190
5007.25 | 60 x 40 <- low; not finished (both sides trading)
Delta: −380 Close: 5007.75
Checklist: aggression in (yes, mild). DOM bids at 5007.75 adding (yes). Volume at 5007.75 is 790 with two ticks of progress; delta −380, no flip (absorption, partial). Low row 60 × 40: unfinished. Delta not flipped. Two and a half yeses. Pass. The stops below 5008.00 have not been run yet and the low is still two-sided.
Bar 8 runs the stops.
Price | Bid x Ask
5007.50 | 120 x 80
5007.25 | 260 x 150
5007.00 | 810 x 540
5006.75 | 620 x 590
5006.50 | 90 x 4 <- finished low
Delta: −536 Close: 5007.00
Sell stops fired below 5007.25 (the burst of 810 and 620 on the bid). At 5006.75, 590 contracts were bought against 620 sold: buyers absorbed nearly all of it. Finished low at 5006.50. Bar 9 opens with delta positive and closes 5007.75. Five yeses by the close of bar 9.
Trade 1. Long 5007.75. Stop 5006.25 (6 ticks). Target 5010.00 (9 ticks). 1.5R. The R is thinner than the plan's estimate because the entry is later than ideal; the trader takes it at two thirds size.
| Bar | High | Low | Close | Delta | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 5008.50 | 5007.50 | 5008.25 | +470 | Working |
| 11 | 5008.75 | 5008.00 | 5008.25 | +210 | Slowing at 5008.75 |
| 12 | 5008.75 | 5007.75 | 5007.75 | −380 | Heavy selling at 5008.50: 1,100 contracts, no progress up |
| 13 | 5008.00 | 5007.00 | 5007.25 | −520 | Bids at 5007.50 pull; acceptance below |
Bar 12 showed the mirror of the entry signal against the position: absorption of buying at 5008.50. Bar 13 showed the bids that had defended 5007.75 pulling. The reason for the trade (buyers defending the overnight low) is gone. Exit 5007.25 on bar 13, before the stop. Loss: (5007.75 − 5007.25) ÷ 1.50 = −0.33R at two thirds size, so −0.22R on the account.
Afterwards. Price accepted below 5007.00, built volume there, and extended to 5005.50 by midday (Scenario A, which the trader had written but had no confirmed entry for; the pullback to 5007.50 came with three yeses and was passed). Closed 5006.00. Day: normal variation, extended down. Session result: −0.22R, one trade, two passes.
Key idea: Session two lost money and was traded correctly. The entry had five yeses; the exit came when the reason for the trade disappeared, at a third of the planned risk. The log records both sessions as process-correct, which is the only thing you control.
Comparing the two
| Session one | Session two | |
|---|---|---|
| Open type | Open-drive | Open-auction |
| Scenario that played | B | B then A |
| Trades | 1 | 1 |
| Passes at a level | 1 | 2 |
| Confirmation count at entry | 5 | 5 |
| Result | +2.2R | −0.22R |
| Process errors | 0 | 0 |
Two sessions, both traded to the plan, net +1.98R. A month of this produces a log with enough entries to know whether the estimated win rates in the prep were right.
Try it: Take your own prep from the previous lesson's exercise and, using a replay of that session, walk through it exactly as above: a table for the open, a footprint for each level touch, a checklist count, and a decision. Write the result in R. The format matters more than the outcome.
Recap
- Session one: open-drive to a ranked level, five-yes absorption, a swing failure short to the POC, +2.2R.
- Session two: open-auction, a pass at two and a half yeses, a five-yes long after a stop run, and an early exit when the defending bids pulled, −0.22R.
- Both were process-correct; the log records confirmation count and reason for exit, not just the P&L.
- Passing on levels with three or fewer yeses is as much a part of the playbook as taking the fives.
- The mirror of your entry signal appearing against you is an exit, regardless of where the stop sits.
See it drawn
Original diagrams for the ideas on this page. Illustrative, not real market data.