Skip to content
GetProfitable
Search

Journal fields and monthly stats

Lesson 27 · about 10 min

A swing trader makes 50 to 80 trades a year. That is a small sample, which means the journal has to capture the right fields to be useful at all. Record too little and you cannot tell which setups or regimes are working; record too much and you stop filling it in. This lesson gives the field list and the five numbers to compute from it each month.

The fields

One row per trade. Fill in the first group at entry, the second at exit, the third at the monthly review.

At entry

Field Example Why it matters
Date, ticker 2026-03-09, XXXX
Setup Pullback 20 EMA Stats by setup
Regime score 5 (green) Stats by regime; the most revealing cut
Sector rank 2 of 11 Confirms the rotation filter is being used
Entry, stop $60.00, $57.06
Risk in $ and % $250, 1.0% Confirms the multipliers were applied
Shares 85
Target 1 in R 2.0R R:R at entry, before the trade tells you what it thinks
Earnings date Apr 22 Days to earnings at entry
Time-stop date Mar 16
Plan sentence "Partial at 66, trail 20 EMA" The contract

At exit

Field Example Why it matters
Exit date(s) Mar 13 (partial), Mar 24 Hold time
Exit reason Trail close < 20 EMA Stop / trail / partial+trail / time / earnings / discretionary
Result in R +2.6R The only P&L number that matters
Max favourable excursion +3.4R How far it went in your favour at best
Max adverse excursion −0.4R How close it came to the stop
Rule breaks None / "moved stop" Count these

At review

Field Example Why it matters
Grade A (plan followed) / B (minor deviation) / C (rule break) Separates process from outcome
One-line lesson "Entered on a gap-up trigger; R:R was 1.4 not 2" The thing to fix

Fifteen fields at entry and exit, two at review. In a spreadsheet, that is one row and a minute of typing per trade.

The five monthly numbers

On the first weekend of each month, compute these from every closed trade in the previous month, and cumulatively from the start of the year.

Number Formula Healthy range for this playbook
Win rate winners ÷ trades 40% to 55%
Average winner (R) sum of winning R ÷ winners 1.8R or more
Average loser (R) sum of losing R ÷ losers (as a positive number) 1.0R or less
Expectancy (R per trade) (win rate × avg winner) − (loss rate × avg loser) Above 0.3R
Rule-break rate trades with a rule break ÷ trades Under 10%

Worked: 12 trades, 6 winners averaging 2.2R, 6 losers averaging 1.1R.

expectancy = (0.5 × 2.2) − (0.5 × 1.1) = 1.10 − 0.55 = 0.55R per trade

Twelve trades at 0.55R is 6.6R for the month, which at 1% base risk is roughly 6.6% before compounding effects. The average loser of 1.1R rather than 1.0R is the number to look at: it means stops were, on average, filled 10% worse than placed, which is either slippage and gaps (acceptable, if small) or a moved stop (not acceptable).

The cuts that matter

With 12 trades a month the monthly numbers are noisy. The cuts below become meaningful at 30 or more trades, so run them quarterly and cumulatively:

  • By regime score. Expectancy in weeks scored 5 to 6 versus 3 to 4.5 versus under 3. Most traders find the third bucket is negative. That table is the argument for the checklist.
  • By setup. Expectancy for each of the five setups. A setup with 20+ trades and negative expectancy is either being executed wrong or does not suit you; either way, retire it for a quarter.
  • By exit reason. Trades exited at the trail versus at the initial stop versus at a discretionary exit. Discretionary exits are almost always the worst bucket.
  • By max favourable excursion. If many losers reached +1.5R before reversing to −1R, the partial rule is not being followed.
Expectancy by regime score (cumulative, 47 trades)

 score 5-6  |  +0.71R  ████████████████████   n=24
 score 3-4.5|  +0.22R  ██████                 n=16
 score <3   |  -0.48R  (negative)             n=7   <- these seven trades cost 3.4R

Key idea: Fifteen fields per trade, five numbers per month, four cuts per quarter. The expectancy-by-regime cut is the one that changes behaviour.

Grading process, not outcome

The grade field exists because a trade can follow every rule and lose, or break three rules and win. Over 60 trades a year, the A-grade trades will show a better expectancy than the C-grade ones, and the size of that gap is the dollar cost of your rule breaks. Most traders who compute it find it is larger than their net result, which means the process, followed cleanly, was profitable and the deviations ate the profit.

Keeping it going

The journal is only useful if it is complete. Two tricks: fill the entry fields as part of preparing the order, so the row exists before the trade does; and do the exit fields during the nightly check on the day of exit, when the reason is fresh. Anything left for "later" gets reconstructed from memory, and memory is kind to the trader.

Try it: Set up the fields in a spreadsheet and back-fill your last ten trades from your broker's history. Compute the five monthly numbers. Then split by regime score, even with the small sample, and look at the sign of each bucket.

Recap

  • Record 15 fields per trade: setup, regime score, sector rank, risk, R:R at entry, earnings and time-stop dates, exit reason, result in R, excursions, rule breaks, grade, lesson.
  • Compute five monthly numbers: win rate, average winner, average loser, expectancy in R, rule-break rate.
  • Cut by regime score, setup, exit reason and favourable excursion at 30+ trades.
  • Grade the process separately from the outcome; the A-versus-C gap is the cost of rule breaks.
  • Fill fields at order preparation and at the nightly check on exit day, never later.

See it drawn

Original diagrams for the ideas on this page. Illustrative, not real market data.

The spread of outcomes behind an expectancyA histogram of forty trades: a tall block of small losses on the left, a low spread of larger wins on the right, and a line marking the average outcome.NUMBER OF TRADES051024 LOSSES, AVG −$20016 WINS, AVG +$600EXPECTANCY +$120−$400−$200$0+$200+$400+$600+$800PROFIT OR LOSS PER TRADEexpectancy = (40% × $600) − (60% × $200) = +$120 per trade
Expectancy: the average trade. Forty trades sorted by outcome: 24 small losses and 16 larger wins. Weighting each side by how often it happens gives the average result per trade, marked here by the dashed line at +$120.
The win rate needed to break evenA falling curve: the more a winning trade pays relative to the amount risked, the smaller the share of trades that must win to break even.BREAKEVEN WIN RATE0%20%40%60%80%1:11:21:31:41:5REWARD-TO-RISK RATIO1:1 needs 50%1:2 needs 33.3%1:3 needs 25%breakeven win rate = 1 ÷ (1 + reward-to-risk)above the curve, wins more than cover losses
The win rate needed to break even. How often a method must win just to stay level, for each reward-to-risk ratio. At 1:1 half the trades must win, at 1:2 a third, and at 1:3 a quarter, because each win covers more losses.