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Asset Pricing: A Tale of Two Days

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What they found

Building on their earlier finding, the authors showed that the CAPM, which fails badly in general, works remarkably well on macro announcement days: on those days, stocks with higher beta earn proportionally higher returns, and the security market line is steep and positive. On non-announcement days the relationship between beta and return is flat or negative. The same holds for the beta of other assets. They interpret this as evidence that market beta is priced when the market is reacting to true systematic (macroeconomic) news, and not priced on ordinary days dominated by other kinds of flow.

What you can use

  • High-beta stocks are rewarded for their risk on macro announcement days and not otherwise; the beta premium lives on about 40 days a year.
  • The low-beta anomaly is largely a non-announcement-day phenomenon.
  • Which stocks to hold into a macro event and which to hold on quiet days can be different questions.

Caveats

Academic asset-pricing paper; the trading implications are indirect. Sample 1964 to 2011.

Tags: macro, announcements, capm, beta

Summaries are our own reading of the paper, not the authors' words. Educational only, not advice. Discuss it in Book Club.