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Carry-to-volatility ratio

The annual interest pickup on a carry position divided by the currency pair's annualised volatility, used to judge whether the yield is worth the risk of holding it.

A 6% carry in a pair that moves 6% a year is a very different proposition from a 6% carry in one that moves 20%. Dividing one by the other produces a crude but useful screen, and it is why carry baskets are usually built from the best ratios rather than the highest raw yields.

The metric flatters carry trades precisely when they are most dangerous. Volatility is low during the calm accumulation phase, so the ratio looks excellent right up to the carry-unwind, when realised volatility triples and the position is exited at the worst prices.

Anyone using it should pair it with a scenario check: how far can the pair move in a single bad week, and does the accumulated carry cover a plausible fraction of that.

Example: a pair offering 5.5% of annual carry with 8% annualised volatility scores 0.69. Another offering 11% with 22% volatility scores 0.5, so the higher-yielding trade is worse per unit of risk.

Related: carry-trade, carry-unwind, emerging-market-currency, real-interest-rate

See it drawn

Original diagrams for the ideas on this page. Illustrative, not real market data.

Contango and backwardationTwo futures curves against contract expiry: one rising above spot, one falling below it.The same commodity, priced for delivery at different dates.78.0076.0074.0072.0070.00Futures pricespot+1m+2m+3m+4m+5m+6mMonths until the contract expiresspot price74.00CONTANGOlater contracts cost more than spotBACKWARDATIONlater contracts cost less than spot
Contango and backwardation. A futures curve shows what buyers will pay for delivery in one month, two months and so on. When later contracts cost more than the spot price the curve is in contango; when they cost less it is in backwardation.

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