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Cognitive reappraisal

Changing how you interpret a situation so the emotion itself changes - reading a stop-out as the cost of information rather than a personal defeat.

Reappraisal works upstream of feeling. If a loss means you are failing, the emotion is shame. If the same loss is one expected outcome of a positive-expectancy process, the emotion is mild and passes.

The reframes that hold up are ones you actually believe, which is why they have to be grounded in real numbers. A trader who knows their system loses six times in ten can reappraise a losing streak honestly. A trader with no records is just telling themselves a story, and the story will not survive the fourth loss.

Rehearse the reframes when calm and write them where you will see them. Reappraisal invented during a drawdown tends to arrive as rationalisation instead.

Related: emotional-regulation, narrow-framing, framing-effect, expectancy

See it drawn

Original diagrams for the ideas on this page. Illustrative, not real market data.

The spread of outcomes behind an expectancyA histogram of forty trades: a tall block of small losses on the left, a low spread of larger wins on the right, and a line marking the average outcome.NUMBER OF TRADES051024 LOSSES, AVG −$20016 WINS, AVG +$600EXPECTANCY +$120−$400−$200$0+$200+$400+$600+$800PROFIT OR LOSS PER TRADEexpectancy = (40% × $600) − (60% × $200) = +$120 per trade
Expectancy: the average trade. Forty trades sorted by outcome: 24 small losses and 16 larger wins. Weighting each side by how often it happens gives the average result per trade, marked here by the dashed line at +$120.

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