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Debt ceiling

A statutory cap on total US government borrowing; while it binds, the Treasury runs down its cash balance and stops issuing new net debt, which distorts bill yields and repo.

When the limit binds, the Treasury uses extraordinary measures and drains the treasury-general-account rather than issuing net new paper. Bill supply collapses, which pushes short bill yields down and pushes cash into the overnight-reverse-repo-facility.

Bills maturing right around the projected exhaustion date trade cheap, because a few investors will not hold anything with even a small delay risk. Once the limit is raised, the Treasury rebuilds its cash balance with a flood of bill issuance, which drains reserves and lifts short yields again.

Example: a bill maturing just after the projected X-date yields 5.65% while bills maturing two weeks earlier and two weeks later yield 5.30%. That 35 basis point kink is the market pricing timing risk, not credit risk.

Related: treasury-bill, treasury-general-account, overnight-reverse-repo-facility, quarterly-refunding, bank-reserves

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