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Primary trend

In Dow Theory, the major multi-month or multi-year direction of the market, which secondary reactions interrupt but do not end.

Dow described three scales at once: the primary trend lasting a year or more, secondary reactions lasting weeks to months and typically retracing a third to two thirds of the primary move, and minor fluctuations of days that he considered noise.

The framework's discipline is that a secondary reaction, however frightening, does not change the primary trend until the structure of higher-highs-higher-lows actually breaks. This is the direct ancestor of modern market-structure analysis.

The practical caution is scale confusion. Most traders operate on the minor scale Dow dismissed as noise, then borrow primary-trend logic to justify holding losers. Be explicit about which scale a given claim applies to; see multi-timeframe-analysis.

Related: dow-theory, market-structure, higher-highs-higher-lows, multi-timeframe-analysis, trend

See it drawn

Original diagrams for the ideas on this page. Illustrative, not real market data.

One daily candle broken into four six-hour candlesA tall daily candle on the left and the four six-hour candles that make it up on the right, with dashed lines linking the day's open to the first candle and the day's close to the last.ONE DAILY CANDLEFOUR 6-HOUR CANDLEScloseopenhighlow=00:0006:0012:0018:00one dayThe same trading, summed up in one bar or spelled out in four.
How timeframes stack up. A daily candle is not different data, only coarser data: it opens where the first six-hour candle opened, closes where the last one closed, and its wicks reach the highest and lowest prices any of the four touched.

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