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Employment cost index (ECI)

A quarterly measure of total labour compensation including benefits, holding the mix of jobs constant so that composition shifts do not distort it.

ECI fixes the occupational and industry weights, which removes the composition problem that plagues average-hourly-earnings. It also includes benefits, which matter because employers often shift compensation between pay and health coverage.

Its weakness is timeliness: four releases a year, each covering a three-month window, published a month after the quarter ends. Fed officials cite it as the most reliable wage series, so a surprise can move the rates market despite the lag.

Example: ECI rises 0.9% in the quarter, or roughly 3.6% annualised, against 1.1% expected. Even though AHE has been decelerating, the cleaner measure says wage pressure is intact and the front end sells off.

Related: average-hourly-earnings, unit-labour-costs, productivity, core-pce, phillips-curve

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