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Volatility ETP decay

The structural erosion in long volatility products caused by rolling futures down an upward-sloping curve, compounded by daily rebalancing.

Two forces work together. The roll: each day the product sells a cheaper near contract and buys a dearer far one, losing the difference when the curve is in contango. And compounding: leveraged and inverse products reset daily, so a choppy path costs money even when the start and end points are identical.

The practical rule is that these instruments are rentals, not holdings. Their behaviour over a day matches the label; their behaviour over a year rarely resembles anything an investor intended.

Example: a 2x long volatility product sees the index go 20, 26, 20, 26, 20 over four days. The index is unchanged. The product, rebalancing to 2x daily on a curve in contango, finishes meaningfully lower — the arithmetic of daily resets plus roll cost, with no view expressed at all.

Related: volatility-etp, vix-roll-yield, contango, volmageddon

See it drawn

Original diagrams for the ideas on this page. Illustrative, not real market data.

Contango and backwardationTwo futures curves against contract expiry: one rising above spot, one falling below it.The same commodity, priced for delivery at different dates.78.0076.0074.0072.0070.00Futures pricespot+1m+2m+3m+4m+5m+6mMonths until the contract expiresspot price74.00CONTANGOlater contracts cost more than spotBACKWARDATIONlater contracts cost less than spot
Contango and backwardation. A futures curve shows what buyers will pay for delivery in one month, two months and so on. When later contracts cost more than the spot price the curve is in contango; when they cost less it is in backwardation.

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