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EWMA

A weighted average that gives geometrically declining weight to older observations, so recent data matters most without a hard cut-off at the window edge.

The recursion is simple: new estimate = lambda x old estimate + (1 - lambda) x new observation. With lambda = 0.94, the standard RiskMetrics choice for daily variance, the most recent day gets 6% of the weight and data from 60 days ago contributes under 0.2%.

Compared with a simple rolling-window, EWMA avoids the ghost effect where a single huge day drops out of the window and the estimate falls off a cliff for no reason. Weights decline smoothly instead.

The effective memory is roughly 1/(1 - lambda) observations, so 0.94 behaves like a 17-day window and 0.97 like a 33-day one. Choosing lambda is therefore the same decision as choosing a window length, with the same parameter-sensitivity obligations.

Related: garch, realised-volatility, rolling-window, volatility-clustering

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