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Fat tails

Extreme outcomes occur far more often than a normal distribution predicts. The single most consequential fact about financial data.

Fat tails break the ordinary intuitions of risk. Variance estimated from quiet periods understates danger, correlation between assets rises exactly when diversification is needed, and a stop-loss does not cap your loss when the market gaps through it overnight.

They also break statistics. Estimators that depend on the variance converge slowly, sharpe-ratio comparisons become unstable, and a monte-carlo-simulation that draws from a fitted normal will systematically understate drawdown.

The design response is structural rather than statistical: size so that a move several times larger than anything in your sample is survivable, prefer instruments without embedded short-gamma, and never treat a stop as a guaranteed exit price.

Related: kurtosis, tail-risk, normal-distribution, stress-test

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