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Humped yield curve

A curve that rises to a peak in the intermediate maturities and then falls, so mid-curve yields sit above both short and long ones.

Humps usually form around the maturity where the market expects the policy peak. If traders think the fomc hikes for another year and then cuts for several, the 1 to 3 year area prices the highest average rate and the belly of the curve bulges.

Humps are the natural habitat for curve-butterfly trades, where you sell the expensive belly against the wings or the reverse.

Example: 3-month 4.90%, 1-year 5.15%, 3-year 4.60%, 10-year 4.25%, 30-year 4.40%. The hump sits at 1 year, and the 30-year tick up gives the long end a small smile.

Related: curve-butterfly, normal-yield-curve, flat-yield-curve, yield-curve

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