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Interest rate risk

The risk that a bond or portfolio loses value because market yields rise; measured by duration and hedged with futures or swaps.

This is the dominant risk in government bonds and a large part of the risk in investment-grade credit. It is not a credit question. A Treasury will always pay you back; the risk is that you are stuck holding a below-market coupon while better bonds are issued around you.

It is also a risk for banks, which borrow short and lend long. A sharp rise in rates cuts the market value of a long bond portfolio even though the accounting may not show it until the bonds are sold.

Example: a bank holds $1bn of bonds with duration 6. Yields rise 200 basis points. The mark-to-market loss is roughly 6 x 2% = 12%, or $120,000,000, regardless of credit quality.

Related: duration, treasury-futures, reinvestment-risk, dv01

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