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Jelly roll

A long synthetic in one expiration against a short synthetic in another; a pure play on interest rates and dividends, not direction.

A jelly roll is a synthetic-long-stock in the near month against a synthetic-short-stock in a further month at the same strike. Direction cancels completely. What remains is the cost of carrying stock between the two dates: interest minus expected dividends.

Traders use the quoted roll price to back out the market's implied-dividend and implied-forward for a name, which is often more current than any published estimate.

Example: XYZ at $50. The near synthetic prices at −$0.05 and the six-month synthetic at +$0.55. The roll is worth $0.60, which on $50 over half a year implies about 2.4% annualised net carry. If the risk-free rate is 4.4%, the market is pricing roughly 2% of dividend yield.

Related: conversion, cost-of-carry

See it drawn

Original diagrams for the ideas on this page. Illustrative, not real market data.

Contango and backwardationTwo futures curves against contract expiry: one rising above spot, one falling below it.The same commodity, priced for delivery at different dates.78.0076.0074.0072.0070.00Futures pricespot+1m+2m+3m+4m+5m+6mMonths until the contract expiresspot price74.00CONTANGOlater contracts cost more than spotBACKWARDATIONlater contracts cost less than spot
Contango and backwardation. A futures curve shows what buyers will pay for delivery in one month, two months and so on. When later contracts cost more than the spot price the curve is in contango; when they cost less it is in backwardation.

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