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LME nickel squeeze (March 2022)

A short squeeze that doubled nickel prices to over $100,000 a tonne in hours, after which the London Metal Exchange cancelled eight hours of trades — an unprecedented intervention.

A large Chinese producer held a vast short hedge against future output. When Russia's invasion of Ukraine threatened supply, the price rose, margin calls mounted, and the attempt to cover drove a self-reinforcing spiral: nickel went from about $25,000 to above $100,000 a tonne on 8 March 2022.

The LME suspended trading and then cancelled roughly $4 billion of trades executed that morning, restoring the previous day's price. Traders who had made money on the spike had it taken away, and litigation and regulatory criticism followed for years.

The episode is the strongest available reminder that an exchange's rulebook is a risk factor. Clearing house survival takes priority over any individual's profit, and "the trade was cancelled" is a loss scenario that no model prices.

Example: a fund long 200 tonnes from $28,000 saw a paper gain of over $14 million at the peak and realised nothing, because the trades in that window were voided and the market reopened near the prior settlement.

Related: short-squeeze, margin-increase, clearing-house, copper-futures, guaranty-fund

See it drawn

Original diagrams for the ideas on this page. Illustrative, not real market data.

Margin and leverageA small deposit controlling a much larger position, and the point at which losses trigger a margin call.Position you controlnotional value $100,000your margin deposit: $5,000$100,000 / $5,000 = 20:1 leverageYour deposit absorbs every dollar of loss$5,000$2,500$0Equity leftMARGIN CALLequity has fallen to $2,5000%1%2%2.5%3%4%5%How far the price moves against you
Margin and leverage. A $5,000 deposit can control a $100,000 position, which is 20:1 leverage. Because the loss is measured on the full $100,000, a 2.5% move against you halves the deposit and brings a margin call, and a 5% move uses all of it.

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