Skip to content
GetProfitable
Search
Dictionary

NUPL

The share of total market value that is unrealised profit, used to describe how much paper gain the market is sitting on.

NUPL is market cap minus realised cap, divided by market cap. Zero means the market collectively breaks even; 0.5 means half of current value is unrealised gain; negative means the network as a whole is under water.

Commentators divide the range into named bands, from capitulation at the bottom through hope, optimism, belief and euphoria above 0.75. The bands are descriptive labels applied to past cycles rather than anything derived, and they should be read that way.

As with mvrv, the analytical value is in describing positioning: a market with enormous unrealised profit has more potential sellers than one that is flat. It does not say when those sellers act, and reaching a historic band has not prevented further movement in the same direction.

Related: mvrv, realized-cap, supply-in-profit, sopr

See it drawn

Original diagrams for the ideas on this page. Illustrative, not real market data.

The mood around a market cycleA price path rising to a peak and falling to a trough, labelled with the feelings usually attached to each stage of the round trip.PRICETIMEOPTIMISMEXCITEMENTEUPHORIAANXIETYDENIALPANICCAPITULATIONDESPONDENCYHOPEOPTIMISM RETURNSMAXIMUM FINANCIAL RISKMAXIMUM FINANCIAL OPPORTUNITY
The mood around a market cycle. The same price path labelled with the feelings that tend to travel with it, from optimism up to euphoria and down through panic to despondency. Confidence is highest where the most money is already committed and prices are highest.

Educational only, not advice. Spotted an error? Post in Site Feedback.