Acquirers pay for control and for synergies, so transaction multiples typically exceed comparable-company-analysis multiples by 20% to 40%. That premium is the reason this method produces the high end of most valuation ranges.
Deals age badly. A multiple paid at a cyclical peak three years ago says little about what a buyer would pay now, so the comparison needs both an industry filter and a recency filter.
Example: three tool-maker deals over four years cleared at 15.5, 17.0 and 13.8 times EBITDA. Applying the 15.4 average to Northwind's $195M implies $3.0B of enterprise value, 5% above the market.
Related: comparable-company-analysis, ev-ebitda, sum-of-the-parts, valuation-multiple, market-cap-versus-enterprise-value