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Profit factor

Gross profits divided by gross losses over a set of trades; above 1.0 is profitable, and 1.5 to 2.0 is considered solid.

The spread of outcomes behind an expectancyA histogram of forty trades: a tall block of small losses on the left, a low spread of larger wins on the right, and a line marking the average outcome.NUMBER OF TRADES051024 LOSSES, AVG −$20016 WINS, AVG +$600EXPECTANCY +$120−$400−$200$0+$200+$400+$600+$800PROFIT OR LOSS PER TRADEexpectancy = (40% × $600) − (60% × $200) = +$120 per trade
Expectancy: the average trade. Forty trades sorted by outcome: 24 small losses and 16 larger wins. Weighting each side by how often it happens gives the average result per trade, marked here by the dashed line at +$120.

Profit factor is a simpler cousin of expectancy. It ignores trade count and tells you how many dollars you made for every dollar you lost.

Very high profit factors in backtesting (above 3) often indicate curve fitting or a tiny sample-size. Live results are usually lower than tested ones after slippage.

Example: over 100 trades you made $12,000 on winners and lost $7,500 on losers. Profit factor = 12,000 / 7,500 = 1.6.

Related: expectancy, win-rate, backtesting, sample-size

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