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Rate cut

A reduction in the central bank's policy rate, normally in 25 basis point steps, intended to loosen financial conditions when growth or inflation is undershooting.

Cuts raise the price of every bond already outstanding and lower the yield on new short paper. The front end of the curve reprices hardest because it is closest to the policy anchor, which is why a cutting cycle usually produces a bull-steepener.

What matters for markets is not the cut itself but the cut relative to what was already priced. If fed-funds-futures imply 90% odds of a 25 basis point cut and the Fed delivers exactly that with an unchanged dot-plot, the reaction can be nothing at all.

Example: futures price a 4.10% average funds rate for the December contract when the current midpoint is 4.375%. That is (4.375 - 4.10) / 0.25 = 1.1 cuts priced by year-end.

Related: target-range, rate-hike, fed-funds-futures, bull-steepener, dot-plot

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