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Serial correlation of returns

Whether periods of profit and loss cluster rather than arriving independently, which changes drawdown estimates and every ratio built on volatility.

Correlate each period's return with the previous one. Positive serial correlation means winning runs and losing runs cluster; negative means results alternate more than chance would produce.

It matters in two ways. Positive autocorrelation makes drawdowns deeper and longer than independence-based estimates predict, so a monte-carlo-reshuffle that assumes independence will understate the risk. It also inflates ratios: annualising a monthly Sharpe by multiplying by the square root of 12 assumes independence, and positively correlated returns make that conversion too generous.

Strongly positive serial correlation in a reported record is also a red flag for smoothing - illiquid positions marked slowly, or losses recognised late. Genuine liquid trading records show correlations close to zero.

Related: monte-carlo-reshuffle, sharpe-inflation, stat-stability, drawdown-duration

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