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Slippage budget

An explicit allowance for execution costs built into your risk and expectancy numbers, rather than a surprise discovered afterwards.

A slippage budget is the amount of edge you are willing to hand to the market in exchange for getting filled. It belongs in the plan next to commission, not in a post-mortem.

Build it from data. Suppose entries average 3 cents of slippage, exits 2 cents, stops 9 cents, and commissions are $0.005 per share round turn. On a $0.75 stop-distance with 650 shares, friction on a stopped trade is roughly (0.03 + 0.09) x 650 + $6.50 = $84.50 against a planned $487 loss, so real 1R is about 1.17R. Every performance statistic you compute needs that inflation applied.

The budget also decides which strategies you can run. A system with a +0.15R edge and a 0.17R friction bill is not a marginal system, it is a negative one. Scalping dies here far more often than it dies from bad signals.

Related: stop-slippage, slippage, expectancy, trade-frequency

See it drawn

Original diagrams for the ideas on this page. Illustrative, not real market data.

Slippage on a market orderA buy order clears four price levels, so the average price paid is worse than the price first quoted.Buy 1,000 shares at marketpricesell orders resting (bar length = size)20.04300 shares20.03200 shares20.01200 shares20.00300 sharesnothing resting at 20.02order sweeps up the bookaverage fill 20.02SLIPPAGE0.02 a share$20.00 in totalintended 20.00Each level fills at its own price; the average is what you really paid.
Slippage on a market order. You click at 20.00, but only 300 shares are resting there, so the rest of the order fills at 20.01, 20.03 and 20.04. The average price paid is 20.02, and that two-cent gap is slippage.
The spread of outcomes behind an expectancyA histogram of forty trades: a tall block of small losses on the left, a low spread of larger wins on the right, and a line marking the average outcome.NUMBER OF TRADES051024 LOSSES, AVG −$20016 WINS, AVG +$600EXPECTANCY +$120−$400−$200$0+$200+$400+$600+$800PROFIT OR LOSS PER TRADEexpectancy = (40% × $600) − (60% × $200) = +$120 per trade
Expectancy: the average trade. Forty trades sorted by outcome: 24 small losses and 16 larger wins. Weighting each side by how often it happens gives the average result per trade, marked here by the dashed line at +$120.

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