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YOLO

You only live once - putting an outsized share of an account into one speculative position, usually short-dated options or high leverage.

A YOLO is defined by size rather than by direction or instrument. The position is large enough that the outcome determines the account, which is the point: the appeal is the magnitude of the possible result and the story attached.

Communities celebrate the winners and laugh at the losers, and both reactions obscure the arithmetic. Concentrating an account into single binary bets guarantees eventual ruin if repeated, however good the individual calls are, because one total loss ends the sequence. See risk-of-ruin and full-port.

Related: full-port, lottos, risk-of-ruin, loss-porn

See it drawn

Original diagrams for the ideas on this page. Illustrative, not real market data.

Risk of ruin against risk per tradeA curve climbing steeply as the share of the account risked on each trade grows, even though every trade carries a small positive edge.CHANCE OF LOSING THE ACCOUNT0%20%40%60%80%05%10%15%20%25%RISK PER TRADE (% OF ACCOUNT)2% → 1.8%5% → 20%10% → 45%20% → 67%assumes a 52% win rate at 1:1, ruin = account goneruin chance = (0.48 ÷ 0.52) ^ (100 ÷ risk %)
Risk of ruin. The chance of losing the whole account, plotted against the share of it staked on each trade, for a method that wins 52% of the time at even money. The edge is the same all along the curve; only the bet size changes.

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