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Grading trades on execution, not P&L

Lesson 13 · about 9 min

Every bias in Module 1 and every form of tilt in Module 2 runs on the same fuel: the result of the last trade. As long as your sense of how you are doing comes from P&L, you are handing the biases the steering wheel. This module replaces P&L with a different scoreboard.

Two questions that get confused

After any trade, there are two separate questions:

  1. Did it make money?
  2. Was it a good trade?

These feel like the same question and they are not. A trade can be taken on a valid setup at the correct size with the stop and target placed at entry and untouched, and lose. That is a good trade that lost. A trade can be taken off-plan at double size with the stop moved twice, and win. That is a bad trade that won, and it is more dangerous than the first one, because it rewarded the behaviour that will eventually blow up the account.

Mark Douglas, in Trading in the Zone, made this the centre of his approach: any individual trade's outcome is uncertain, and the only thing the trader controls is whether they executed their edge. Brett Steenbarger, a clinical psychologist who has worked with traders at hedge funds and prop firms, frames it as treating trading like any other performance discipline, where an athlete reviews technique rather than the scoreboard. The point both make is that outcome feedback in trading is too noisy to learn from directly; you have to learn from process feedback instead.

Key idea: "Did it make money?" and "Was it a good trade?" are different questions. Over a single trade, only the second one contains information about you. Grade the second one.

The execution grade

Every trade gets a letter grade, assigned after the trade closes and before you look at the P&L if you can manage it. The grade is for execution only.

A: fully on plan.

  • Setup was on the written list and all conditions were met.
  • Size was exactly 1R.
  • Stop and target were placed with the entry.
  • Stop was not moved away from entry.
  • Exit was at stop, at target, or by a pre-written management rule.
  • Entry was not within a time-out.

B: minor deviation.

  • One small departure that did not change risk: a target taken a few ticks early on a written discretion rule, an entry a little late but with the stop still at the planned level.

C: meaningful deviation.

  • Setup was marginal, or size was off by a small amount, or the exit was discretionary without a written rule for it.

D: rule break.

  • Off-plan setup, wrong size, moved stop, entry inside a time-out, or any of the self-assessment behaviours from Module 2.

F: tilt trade.

  • A trade whose stated purpose (the "I am taking this trade because..." sentence) was repair, chasing, or boredom. Any trade taken after a circuit breaker should have fired.

Note that the grade is independent of the result. An A can lose 1R. An F can win 3R. The grade tells you what you did; the result tells you what the market did.

What the grades show over time

After thirty or forty graded trades, sort them.

The A trades are your system. Their expectancy is your real edge, uncontaminated by tilt. If the A trades are profitable, you have a strategy and your problems are behavioural, which is good news because behaviour is fixable. If the A trades are not profitable, no amount of psychology will help and the strategy needs work; that is also good to know, and it is a different course.

The D and F trades are your leak. Compute their total in R. In most logs that have been honestly graded, the D and F trades are a small fraction of the count and a large fraction of the losses. That number is what this course is worth to you.

The B and C trades are the grey zone. Look at whether they are drifting toward A (you are tightening up) or toward D (rules are eroding). Trends matter more than any single week.

The scoreboard change

Once you are grading, change what you track as your headline number. Instead of daily P&L, track:

  • Percentage of trades graded A this week. Target: rising over time, above 80% for an established trader.
  • Number of D and F trades this week. Target: zero, with honest logging when it is not.
  • Rule breaks this week, listed by rule.

Put these three at the top of the journal, above the P&L. A week with negative P&L and 90% A trades is a good week; the market was not there, and you did your job. A week with positive P&L and three F trades is a bad week that got lucky, and it should be treated as a warning.

This feels strange for a while. Money is what you are here for, and pretending it does not matter is not the goal. The goal is to recognise that money over a week is mostly noise and execution over a week is mostly signal, and to put your attention on the signal.

Grading in real time

The grade is most useful before the trade. If you would grade the trade you are about to take as a C or worse, do not take it. The "I am taking this trade because..." sentence from Module 2 is effectively a pre-grade: a plan-based answer is an A, anything else is a D or F.

Some traders keep a physical A/B/C/D/F card and touch the grade before sending the order. It sounds childish and it is effective, because it converts a fast impulsive process into a slow deliberate one, which is the same principle as Module 3's friction design.

Try it: Grade your last thirty trades using the scale above, without looking at the P&L column until all thirty are graded. Then add the P&L back in and compute the total R for A trades and the total R for D and F trades separately. Write both numbers at the top of your journal. The second number is your leak; the first is your edge.

Recap

  • "Did it make money?" and "Was it a good trade?" are separate questions; a single trade's result is noise, its execution is signal.
  • Douglas and Steenbarger both frame trading as execution of a process whose individual outcomes are uncertain.
  • Grade every trade A to F on execution only, independent of result: A is fully on plan, D is a rule break, F is a tilt trade.
  • A-trade expectancy is your real edge; D and F totals are your leak; most honest logs show the leak is a small share of trades and a large share of losses.
  • Replace the daily P&L headline with percentage of A trades, count of D/F trades, and rule breaks by rule.

See it drawn

Original diagrams for the ideas on this page. Illustrative, not real market data.

The spread of outcomes behind an expectancyA histogram of forty trades: a tall block of small losses on the left, a low spread of larger wins on the right, and a line marking the average outcome.NUMBER OF TRADES051024 LOSSES, AVG −$20016 WINS, AVG +$600EXPECTANCY +$120−$400−$200$0+$200+$400+$600+$800PROFIT OR LOSS PER TRADEexpectancy = (40% × $600) − (60% × $200) = +$120 per trade
Expectancy: the average trade. Forty trades sorted by outcome: 24 small losses and 16 larger wins. Weighting each side by how often it happens gives the average result per trade, marked here by the dashed line at +$120.
Risk and reward on one tradeA price scale showing an entry with a stop two points below and a target six points above, so the reward band is three times the risk band.PRICETARGET 106.00ENTRY 100.00STOP 98.00REWARDRISK6.00 pointsthree times the risk2.00 pointsthe most you loserisk : reward = 1 : 3
Risk and reward on one trade. One trade on a price scale: the entry sits 2.00 points above the stop and 6.00 points below the target, so the shaded reward band is three times the risk band. The ratio compares what is lost if the stop is hit with what is gained if the target is reached.