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Melt-up

A steep, accelerating advance driven by participants chasing rather than by new fundamentals.

A melt-up is a rally that feeds on itself: late buyers, short covering, and the fear of being left behind. Volatility often rises with price, which is unusual, and the advance can be far larger and longer than valuation-based reasoning suggests.

Melt-ups are dangerous in both directions. Shorting one because it is unjustified ignores that the flows are real, and joining it late means buying an extended position with no reference level below. The end is often a blow-off-top, which is only identifiable afterwards.

Related: blow-off-top, euphoria, short-squeeze, fomo

See it drawn

Original diagrams for the ideas on this page. Illustrative, not real market data.

The mood around a market cycleA price path rising to a peak and falling to a trough, labelled with the feelings usually attached to each stage of the round trip.PRICETIMEOPTIMISMEXCITEMENTEUPHORIAANXIETYDENIALPANICCAPITULATIONDESPONDENCYHOPEOPTIMISM RETURNSMAXIMUM FINANCIAL RISKMAXIMUM FINANCIAL OPPORTUNITY
The mood around a market cycle. The same price path labelled with the feelings that tend to travel with it, from optimism up to euphoria and down through panic to despondency. Confidence is highest where the most money is already committed and prices are highest.

Educational only, not advice. Spotted an error? Post in Site Feedback.